Category Archives: Market Thoughts

Brief History of the Housing Bubble

I just read an interesting article on how the current crisis developed from a historical perspective.  Its “Wall Street Lays Another Egg”, Niall Ferguson, 11/17/2008 at vanityfair.com.  Here’s my summary: 1. Prior to the 1930’s, only a small minority of American’s … Continue reading

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The Housing Market: Supply, Demand and Interest Rates

Rosenberg had a great section on the housing market today, with a lot of useful charts, and I couldn’t resist writing on them here.  I’ll start with the basic conclusions, then explain the supporting charts (all of which are from Dave Rosenberg’s newsletters, … Continue reading

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Economic outlook and investing strategies for the next 5-10 years

I am still bearish on the stock market, believing that the GDP and growth forecasts will continue to be cut, both for the second half of 2010 and those for 2011.  Even then,  I’m picturing a stock market that is … Continue reading

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Exchange-Traded Debt and Preferred Stocks

Even individual investors should be allocating some of their portfolio in assets other than stocks.  Most people do that through mutual funds or CD’s, which have their disadvantages.  When bonds and preferred stocks are traded on the exchange, it gives individual … Continue reading

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The Tough Situation of the Fed

Ben Bernanke is certainly in a tough position.  It’s often cited that the Fed has a tough balancing act with the dual mandates of promoting ‘full employment’ and ‘low, steady rates of inflation’.  Currently, Bernanke is under intense political pressure … Continue reading

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Cramer and Rosenberg on the recent bounce

I like the money supply increase answer for what’s been driving the market up recently.  The WSJ had an article about individual investors staying out of this one, and it certainly hasn’t been from improving news on the economic front.  … Continue reading

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Markets getting more interesting

When you’re bearish, the markets are often boring because short strategies are inherently risky.  They often involve picking a window of time, such as with puts, or paying interest (&dividends if the stock pay’s them) and having margin accounts and a possibility … Continue reading

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Deflation, Disinflation or Hyperinflation

I suppose I’m leaving out the possibility of normal planned inflation, with a recovering economy enabling governments to cut debt levels relatively painlessly – but who am I kidding here?  Personally I’m predicting continued disinflation/borderlined deflation for the next couple … Continue reading

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Investment Themes for Today’s Market

Dave Rosenberg has been recommending a cyclical-defensive barbell strategy focusing on US bonds, consumer staples, health care, and defensive stocks on one side, gold and energy on the other – both with an income-oriented focus (interest and dividend yield).  This … Continue reading

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I have to admit I’m in the bearish camp, thinking we’ll see a double-dip in stocks as well as unemployment numbers.  This isn’t a recent change in view from yesterday’s turmoil, but a view I’ve held for several months due … Continue reading

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