Author Archives: johnonstocks

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002

Time to go long oil? Patience, we’re getting there.

I’ve been thinking about oil this week for a number of reasons. We had the threats against oil shorts from the Saudis, suggesting they are looking at cutting oil. The US continues to drain its strategic petroleum reserve, and there … Continue reading

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Flight to Mega-Cap Stocks Continues

The S&P 500 has been consolidating in a fairly tight range between 4100 and 4200 since the beginning of April. Here’s the equal weight S&P 500, ticker RSP. This looks like a descending channel, with the 50 day moving average … Continue reading

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Government Debt is Back in Focus. Should it Be?

With the debt ceiling coming up, stories of debt alarmism are shooting around like crazy. We’re back to seeing the ever-growing debt clock, along with fears of hyperinflation and questions of when foreigners will stop funding the US government by … Continue reading

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Can higher interest rates cause higher inflation?

Conventional economics often ignores the effects of debt, but at high levels it can become quite powerful. Government deficits are inflationary, and if higher interest rates are paid with higher deficits then this can spiral out of control like it … Continue reading


The eye of the storm

I didn’t do any trading this last week as we have been in a tight range this last month with shrinking volatility. I’ve heard a number of very compelling bearish takes, these last few weeks, but more bullish takes have … Continue reading

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S&P 500: Should I Stay or Should I go?

It is very easy to get bearish right now. There are many stories out there about high end jobs getting trimmed, about banks cutting back on credit to the real economy, about the coming bust in Commercial Real Estate. These … Continue reading

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1947 Long Grind?

I can’t help thinking of the markets today as being in the midst of the 2008 post Bear-Sterns rally which started in mid March, topped in mid May, fell to new 1yr lows by July, then fell off a cliff … Continue reading


The Stock Market is About Flows

I often hear the phrase “the stock market thinks” or “the stock market is pricing in” People love to anthropomorphize everything. Stock markets are often depicted as both emotionally and fundamentally driven creatures driven by bulls and bears fighting it … Continue reading

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Margin Accounts Rip Off Retail Investors

As an investor, every once in a while something surprises you and makes you feel like a complete idiot. Just yesterday, going through my accounts, I noticed an interest charge which seemed a bit high. At first I thought it … Continue reading

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What Makes Stock Markets Turn?

Most people assume that the stock market reacts to fundamentals. This is a popular view, given the tendency of mainstream journalism to simply attribute the latest stock market move on a seemingly relevant news story. Inevitably, these views run into … Continue reading

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