Author Archives: johnonstocks

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002

Bear market rally?

Rauol Pal of Realvision suggested that this rally is being led by re-balancing of stock/bond funds, which would explain why you see inflows into stocks while Cryptocurrencies, which are not part of mutual fund flows, continue to struggle. I anticipate … Continue reading

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Tech Bear, Commodity Bull

This week I figured I’d explain my thesis of what’s going on with markets, and why I expect we’re at the early stages of a bull market in commodities despite the bust in speculative tech, downturn in stock indices, rate … Continue reading

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Liquidity is Draining from the Markets

It was a great week for the US Dollar. On the flip side, it was a terrible week for any kind of investments. Everything sold off against the dollar including all stocks, bonds, crypto, foreign currencies, and commodities. Thanks to … Continue reading

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Crazy Fed Week Buying

This week I figured it would be fun to start with my predictions from last week and how my gameplan panned out. Here is exactly what I said last week: Relief rally Monday morning from oversold lows, speculation that perhaps … Continue reading


Golden Week, A Buying Opportunity

We’ve been having one of those months that makes all investors feel stupid. I’m down 7% on the week, down 19.5% on the month, down 14.6% YTD, and down 11.8% on the last year. If you’re interested in these little … Continue reading

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Will we see a melt-up prior to the market crash everyone expects?

It’s been quite a week, with a big selloff starting on Thursday and continuing into Friday. My portfolio is actually down 7% on the week, which is quite remarkable given my heavy weighting in cash. In addition, I actually had … Continue reading

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Preparing for late-cycle tightening

Wealthion had a some interesting podcasts on YouTube this last week, first with Dave Rosenberg and Stephanie Pomboy, then with Michael Pento. Same rough idea with both – prepare for the coming recession with a potentially nasty bear market. Here’s … Continue reading

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Top-ticking interest rates

In the current environment, I see the biggest chance to make outsized returns as top-ticking interest rates through calls on TLT. It is obviously a high-risk play, as these things can go to zero if TLT simply goes nowhere long … Continue reading


Bearish decline imminent? Not quite yet.

The famous 2’s-10’s treasury curve inverted a couple times this week, and yield curve inversions are becoming more regular topics in the circles of FinTwit (Financial Twitter). At the same time, it seems like to many people are nervous or … Continue reading


Moving Day

Its moving weekend for me, so I’m pretty busy right now. My mother is selling her house, basically cashing in on the enormous housing boom and we are moving to rent. We’re moving closer to family, east over the mountains … Continue reading

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