Author Archives: johnonstocks

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002

QE, Margin Debt and Eurodollar Shortages

I’ll start with a chart on margin debt from Margin Debt and the Market: Up 2.4% in June, Continues Record Trend – dshort – Advisor Perspectives I’ve seen some tweets on Margin Debt starting to roll over, but the latest … Continue reading

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Bonds soar as Commodities struggle

It’s been a rough month for commodities in general. My last 4 weeks of performance were -10.8%, +2.9%, +0.4%, -0.9%. It looks even worse when you look at the miners: I own all of these names above, and they make … Continue reading

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Significant rally in US treasuries capped with Friday selloff

It’s been quite a week for the US Long Bond: I actually think that the TLT rally we see still has legs to it. There are a number of reasons to expect economic weakness and reduced CPI going forward including … Continue reading

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Modeling the effects of UBI

UBI, or Universal Basic Income, is a topic which has growing interest.  Some people think it is inevitable as we transition into a world where technology makes supply so abundant relative to labor that it is the only way to … Continue reading

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Big drops in precious metals

It’s been a crazy couple of weeks for precious metals. The weekly candles on the top chart still show a decent uptrend case, with gold breaking out and successfully backtesting a bull flag formation, and carving out a potential reverse … Continue reading

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Melt-ups and pullbacks

This week I have a nearly 11% drawdown. My TLT calls were off a lot, my index puts and mining stocks were off a little, and nothing really went up. Here’s a visual representation of what happened: One of my … Continue reading

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Commodities off, dollar on

I just got back from a weekend visiting a cousin up in Portland Oregon, and I was pleasantly surprised that my portfolio is actually up on the week. I am heavily invested in gold and silver miners as well as … Continue reading

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An Indecisive Market

The market does seem very indecisive at the moment. For my two biggest bets, gold has been struggling at 1900 for nearly a month, while silver has been struggling at 28 for over a month. QQQ (Nasdaq) just passed the … Continue reading

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Miner adjustments

I actually did start a position in Crypto last Monday, going with Cardano this time, ticker ADA. I also sold some of the more speculative miners in Lithium, Graphite, and Uranium exploration. In addition, I sold covered calls on all … Continue reading

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Reassessing Crypto – time to turn Bullish?

As you could see from my previous post, I was worried about crypto for a while. I had gotten out of the space completely in April as the altcoins were beginning to skyrocket while Bitcoin was rolling over. This turned … Continue reading

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