Author Archives: johnonstocks

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at gluskinsheff.com. Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002

The Bear Market Continues

It’s been a crazy week for everyone I’d imagine. My high-risk portfolio is down 12.2% on the week, as everything got absolutely crushed. Being a stubborn retail trader who buys falling knives, I couldn’t resist reacting a bit – so … Continue reading

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Inflation is not what you think it is

The chart above shows the US dollar rising nearly 12% from 111 to 124 as the CPI rises from 1.4% to 8.3%. There are many arguments for why that is, such as the USD being the “cleanest dirty shirt” among … Continue reading

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Bear markets, frustrating times

A significant financial crisis event is becoming more likely as time rolls on. I actually bought more Jan 2024 TLT calls as I still believe treasury rates will fall fast once something major breaks, the only question is when. My … Continue reading

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SILJ is bottoming, perhaps for another year

Above you can see 1-year charts of the S&P 500 along with all of the sectors I’m invested in. Right now we’re in a period of liquidity drain, and the most liquid index above is SPY, which is why it’s … Continue reading

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Commodity Shortages Amid Recession

It’s been an interesting week in the markets. My overall portfolio is up more than 5% on the week, thanks to my allocation to Uranium miners. Of course, it was down more than 9% on the week prior so no … Continue reading

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My market expectations going forward

It’s difficult to come out with the best template to invest in today, so here’s roughly what I’m thinking. Just like after the dot-com bust, the mighty will fall (in price). Industry stalwarts set to benefit greatly from prevailing trends … Continue reading

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Back from vacation, here are some quick charts

I didn’t trade much this last week, basically only adding a couple more SPY puts as the rally continues. I’m still convinced we’re in a bear rally, and my views of the charts above all reflect that. I actually did … Continue reading

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Basic technical analysis and where we are today

The very basics of technical analysis is trend-following, with the idea of holding during the bulk of an up-trend and getting out for the bulk of the down-trend. Here’s where we are for the S&P 500: Many investors like to … Continue reading

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Recession becomes more mainstream

As the official data plugged in a 2nd quarter of negative real GDP growth, recession calls are becoming more mainstream. Note that the NBER uses a number of metrics, particularly with layoffs and such, to confirm a recession before they … Continue reading

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Too early for mining? Not for me.

We saw a decent rally in uranium miners this week. I sold some out of the money covered calls on a couple of my positions and used the proceeds to buy more SBSW. The big Fed meeting is coming next … Continue reading

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