Author Archives: johnonstocks

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002

Beware the false choices of mainstream narratives

We’re at a point in the market that’s difficult to read. The S&P 500 was flat all week, with intraday false breakouts on the upside and the downside. I closed out my short-dated SPY puts Friday morning for a loss … Continue reading

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Stock reactions from news vs underlying cash flows

The stock market reacts to events in funny ways. Usually the headline news events have nothing to do with market movements at all, but the press will just say “stocks went up on optimism about vaccines” or occasionally “stocks went … Continue reading

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My thoughts on Crypto

Cryptocurrencies have been going crazy this week, particularly the altcoins lead by quick triples in DOGE and XRP. I do wish I held onto the bit that I sold off a week and a half ago as they all jumped, … Continue reading

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Talk of a market top is probably early

I’ve found Twitter to be an invaluable tool to get a sense of the stock markets. For years I used it only to announce blog posts, thinking of it as a weird newer Facebook or something. For news, I tried … Continue reading

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My deflationary view with a bullish tilt to Gold, Silver & Uranium miners

I finally broke an 8-week losing streak. After seeing negative portfolio returns every week since the beginning of February, taking me down 36.5% (adjusting the money I put in out of the gains), I hit a 2.1% uptick. The reasons … Continue reading

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Rethinking my positions as markets get volatile

It’s been a volatile week. Looking at my weekly market performance, I’m down 2.1%. In fact, my peak valuation was back on Jan 30 and since then I’ve been down every week with a cumulative loss around 36.5%. I actually … Continue reading

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Uranium, Interest Rates, Portfolio Outlook

For me, this week was largely about the push in Uranium miners. I came into the trading week with a few things in mind: The federal reserve meeting on March 17th about bank regulations and the rapidly rising interest rates. … Continue reading

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The Crazy Thinking of this TLT Bull over the last month

Someone on Twitter asked “could you imagine being long bonds right now?” I replied that it’s a tough trade to hold, and then thought I should start my blog with it this weekend. Here’s a quick trace through of my … Continue reading

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Narratives and Rotations

I’ve done a lot of thinking about the market in the last week – where we are, where we’re going, and how to play my hand. A few weeks ago, I decided to bet half of my holdings in TLT … Continue reading

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Unloading at Big Bear

Last week was significant in my portfolio allocation, as I used the downturn in the major US indices to unload a number of my nearest date lowest strike puts – selling all of my IWM Jan 2022 puts with strikes … Continue reading

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