Commodities off, dollar on

I just got back from a weekend visiting a cousin up in Portland Oregon, and I was pleasantly surprised that my portfolio is actually up on the week.

I am heavily invested in gold and silver miners as well as 18 month calls in gold and silver miners, and I expected those to get crushed with the precipitous drop in Gold and Silver last week.

At the same time, the my various put positions gained slightly, and my overweight TLT calls position went up considerably. Note that I am still down in those trades, but it is good to see them playing a buffering role here.

The inflation trades got crushed this week in general, but my overall outlook hasn’t changed – I think the 30 year treasury yields are likely to re-visit the lows as economic weakness begins to show with the stimulus measures such as extended unemployment benefits and forbearance programs on mortgages, rents, and student loans phase out while the amount of additional stimulus passed disappoints. At the same time, I think the fed will react to any significant pullback, and that we are starting a long bullish trend for the miners in general – gold, silver, uranium, copper, etc – and I plan to add to those on weakness.

I am also planning on following Rauol Pal’s advice and keeping something in Crypto. I’m sticking with Cardano as I explained last week, and I am being very cautious about adding more unless I get a significant dip (next small adds at $1.30, $1.20, and $1.10).

Here’s where my portfolio landed. Note that I didn’t add to any hedge positions this week, though I did add a bit to my gold and silver miners. Also note that I’m pretty much out of Uranium at the moment as all my UUUU was called this Friday, and I’m not planning on jumping back in just yet. The huge change in my “downside bets” is simply because they went up in value while the rest of my portfolio went down.

  • DOWNSIDE BETS (42.6%)
    • 30.6% TLT Calls
    • 5.8% IWM Puts
    • 1.5% EEM Puts
    • 4.7% QQQ Puts
  • GOLD (18.6%)
    • 2.1% WPM & GOLD Calls
    • 5.3% EQX Calls
    • 8.9% SAND Calls
    • 2.2% LGDTF
  • SILVER (21.2%)
    • 9.3% AG (w/ covered calls)
    • 0.8% AG Calls
    • 4.6% SILV
    • 1.2% MTA
    • 1.5% RSNVF
    • 3.3% SILVRF
    • 0.6% SSVFF
  • COMMODITIES (4.4%)
    • 0.9% BQSSF (Uranium)
    • 3.5% NOVRF (Nickel/Copper)
  • CANNABIS (4.9%) split btw CRLBF, GTBIF & TRSSF
  • CRYPTO (2.1%) all ADA
  • CASH (6.2%)

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at gluskinsheff.com. Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002
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