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Monthly Archives: April 2020
Making some decisions and assessing my portfolio
As you can probably tell from my last post, I’ve been struggling with a position that was all too bearish during that monster rally we just had this past 6 weeks. Overall, my portfolio value is down 28% since it’s … Continue reading
Perhaps it’s time to dump my short S&P position
The markets ended on a bit of a weak note today, which might be a good opportunity for me to exit. The reason why is simple … shorting large tech companies just doesn’t make sense right now. Check this out: … Continue reading
Light at the end of the tunnel
Some places are partially reopening in coming weeks. Even here in California they’re talking about re-opening beaches while encouraging people to use them responsibly with social distancing. An article said that testing in New York suggests about 20% of the … Continue reading
Historical Recessions and the Current Fiscal Response
A lot of people are trying to figure out how to model the modern market based on recessions of the past. Is it a sharp V-recovery like the crash of 1987? Is it a prolonged generational event like the great … Continue reading
Gold Miners: The ultimate hedge for my shortfolio
I’m still convinced that the bull case is wrong, that we won’t be hitting a quick V-shaped recovery after the coronavirus restrictions start to ease. Are people going to go head straight to crowded Vegas casinos, fly to their dream … Continue reading
Hyperinflation Hype? How should we model this market?
There is a lot going on in financial markets right now – it is truly a fascinating time to watch this unfold. Everyone will remember the coronavirus-lockdown periods with for the rest of their lives, with the intensity of the … Continue reading
Mid-week update
The S&P continues to rally. Yesterday I purchased a bunch of January 2021 puts in IWM (an ETF tracking the Russell 2000). I’m still convinced that this is a typical bear-market retracement rally – built on the narrative that the … Continue reading
I may be wrong, but I’m still bearish
The markets rallied significantly today with the S&P 500 up around 6.7% and the Russel 2000 up around 7.6%. Here’s what’s going on… Bull case – basic narrative: The federal reserve has got your back. They are pushing QE-infinity right … Continue reading
Market trends are not driven by emotions
It’s a lot of fun to talk about market sentiment – bulls vs bears, greed vs panic and all that. Just remember that sentiment only drives near-term lows and near-term highs, not the overall direction of the market. Right now … Continue reading