Monthly Archives: April 2020

As you can probably tell from my last post, I’ve been struggling with a position that was all too bearish during that monster rally we just had this past 6 weeks.  Overall, my portfolio value is down 28% since it’s … Continue reading →

The markets ended on a bit of a weak note today, which might be a good opportunity for me to exit. The reason why is simple … shorting large tech companies just doesn’t make sense right now. Check this out: … Continue reading →

Some places are partially reopening in coming weeks. Even here in California they’re talking about re-opening beaches while encouraging people to use them responsibly with social distancing. An article said that testing in New York suggests about 20% of the … Continue reading →

A lot of people are trying to figure out how to model the modern market based on recessions of the past.  Is it a sharp V-recovery like the crash of 1987?  Is it a prolonged generational event like the great … Continue reading →

I’m still convinced that the bull case is wrong, that we won’t be hitting a quick V-shaped recovery after the coronavirus restrictions start to ease. Are people going to go head straight to crowded Vegas casinos, fly to their dream … Continue reading →

There is a lot going on in financial markets right now – it is truly a fascinating time to watch this unfold.  Everyone will remember the coronavirus-lockdown periods with for the rest of their lives, with the intensity of the … Continue reading →

The S&P continues to rally.  Yesterday I purchased a bunch of January 2021 puts in IWM (an ETF tracking the Russell 2000).  I’m still convinced that this is a typical bear-market retracement rally – built on the narrative that the … Continue reading →

The markets rallied significantly today with the S&P 500 up around 6.7% and the Russel 2000 up around 7.6%.  Here’s what’s going on… Bull case – basic narrative: The federal reserve has got your back.  They are pushing QE-infinity right … Continue reading →

It’s a lot of fun to talk about market sentiment – bulls vs bears, greed vs panic and all that.  Just remember that sentiment only drives near-term lows and near-term highs, not the overall direction of the market. Right now … Continue reading →