My Journal

I finally figured out how to make My Journal into a post page, seperate from Market Thoughts, and copied in my old page with the dates.  I can’t say I’m completely happy with it yet – I still want Market Thoughts posts to be on my front page, and this journal page to be a choice on the menu.  Oh well.  I haven’t been working on my trading strategy recently – maybe I’ll start again tonight.

Advertisements

About johnonstocks

I've been trading stocks since 2003, active on Motley Fool's discussion boards and using first Hidden Gems, then Global Gains. I no longer have the newsletters, but I keep up on the WSJ and read David Rosenberg everyday at gluskinsheff.com. Education: CFA level 2 candidate MBA-focus in Finance, Marshall, University of Southern California - expected Dec 2010. BS Mechanical Engineering, UC San Diego, June 2002
This entry was posted in My Journal. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to My Journal

  1. jbock220 says:

    Wasn’t sure where else to post my comments on all this, so I’m going to just drop it in here. Though, I’d rather have a forum or email to write to (I normally wouldn’t write this publicly). Anyhow, here I go…

    First, this was one of the best economics reads I’ve had in a long time. I don’t have WSJ (I’d like to), I get most of my info from NPR and whatever other mainstream media I come across. Needless to say you have a much better handle on the details of the big picture, (my grasp being meager and simplistic) I totally concur with all the assessments you make. I also hold in high regard your commitment to documentation rather than speculative approach to proving your strategy (it being the conservative and reasonable approach) and you’re conservative about your appraisals of the situation we find ourselves in. Mentioning the potential for systemic collapse is something I appreciate as well, because, as remote a possibility as it may be, it is a possibility nonetheless and as I see it, it’s a part of the foundation for the policies being made. So many who criticize current policies don’t understand there’s reasoning behind them (they may not be the best, but they aren’t without some merit). As I see it, a large part of the fundamental issue is the possibility of the “systemic collapse” of the fractional reserve system. It was spoken about before and after Lehman Bros. fell, i see it as the backbone to why “Helicopter Ben” and the Fed have chosen the path they’ve chosen (It’s the best of bad options, -politically). The unwind slowly approach, right?

    You mentioned…
    “…inflation in the short and perhaps medium term,… when it comes it will come fast.”

    This is bolstered by Greenspan’s recent comments…
    “Inflation and long-term interest rates, the typical symptoms of fiscal excess, have remained remarkably subdued. This is regrettable, because it is fostering a sense of complacency that can have dire consequences.”

    “remarkably subdued” being the operative term.

    I’m not entirely clear on your formula for this, but it sounds brilliant…
    “My recommendation, would be to take advantage of the flaws in the system by maximizing your primary mortgage with a 30-year fixed (keeping rates below 5%) and investing the proceeds into 10-year US treasuries. The interest is tax-deductable, so earning 4% on a US treasury would pay for a 5% mortgage in a tax bracket as low as 20% (5*(1-20) = 4). This will not only allow you to take advantage of the inflationary affects when they do hit, but it is also a free type of insurance because you can always foreclose out the house and keep the amount of your built-up equity which is stored in the US treasuries. It is a crazy market and I think fixes should, but won’t be made. ”

    I’ll attempt to work this out…
    Interest on a 30 year $100,000 mortgage at 5% for one year = $4,966.50
    Interest on 10 year T-notes $100,000 at 4% for one year = $3,967.95
    A tax deductible total of $8934.45 x 25% = $2233.61 tax savings
    Balance: -$4,966.50 +$3967.95 +$2233.61 = +$1235.06
    Did that just make money or did I miss something?

    What are you thoughts on Great Britain’s recent strategy announcement? I imagine there are a lot of factors to consider, but if they buckle down first and hardest, could they be the first and strongest coming out?
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/world/europe/23britain.html?ref=unitedkingdom

    Currencyshares – I’m trying to understand what and how they operate. Got any descriptive links maybe?

    My financial education consists primarily of a Macro Econ 101 book, “Security Analasys” by Graham/Dodd, “Other Peoples Money…” Brandais, Futures Fundamentals (by ?), some Wall Street history books, a few biographies (Rockefeller, Morgan, Rothchilds, etc.), and misc. media (The news, NPR’s “Marketplace”, occasionally some investing show on AM radio”). If you were to bring someone onto your investing firm what would you want them to have read/studied?

    I guess that’s it for now. What a great find. I’ll definitely be following your blog.
    Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s